Excessive climate occasions are more and more forcing tens of millions of individuals from their houses. Final 12 months, floods and storms triggered extra individuals to be internally displaced world wide than warfare or violence.
Driving meals insecurity and competitors for assets, local weather change can even not directly intensify battle dangers.
Analysing developments in each local weather and battle knowledge is due to this fact not solely crucial for humanitarian response groups but additionally for journalists and researchers trying to perceive the compounding impacts of weather-related hazards and violence on displaced communities.
In Half One in every of The Story of a Storm we confirmed you methods to flip uncooked local weather knowledge into visualisations utilizing NASA’s Giovanni software and to plot it with Google Earth Professional Desktop.
In Half Two, we’ll give attention to battle and displacement knowledge.
Utilizing occasion knowledge from the Armed Battle Location & Occasion Information Venture (ACLED) and geospatial data from OpenStreetMap (OSM), we’ll additional analyse our case research from Half One – Cabo Delgado, a coastal province within the north of Mozambique.
Cabo Delgado is a area besieged not solely by cyclones but additionally by years of battle. What started in 2017 as a sequence of localised assaults by Islamist militias has since escalated into an ongoing regional civil warfare between authorities forces and the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP). Near one million individuals have been displaced, with excessive climate occasions together with Cyclone Kenneth in 2019 and Cyclone Gombe in 2022 solely including to the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe.
Step 1: Sourcing Battle Incident Information
Armed Battle Location and Occasion Information (ACLED) offers real-time monitoring of worldwide political violence and unrest by offering geo-referenced information of protests, riots, and violence focusing on civilians.
Most of ACLED’s knowledge originates from public sources, together with native media reviews and social media posts, making it closely depending on the presence or absence of native journalism. This reliance can create gaps within the knowledge. Nevertheless, occasionally, ACLED can also collect intelligence from native companions on the bottom.
Every occasion entry consists of key attributes corresponding to dates, areas, concerned actors, casualty figures and occasion descriptions. The information might be downloaded as CSV information with XY coordinates for spatial evaluation. It is very important acknowledge that these coordinates typically signify approximate areas, incessantly defaulting to the closest metropolis centre fairly than the exact location, which reduces spatial accuracy for detailed evaluation.
To obtain ACLED Information in CSV format, you’ll first must create a free account. You’ll then must generate an entry key earlier than navigating to the Information Export Instrument.
Given the complexity and longevity of the battle in Cabo Delgado, with incidents courting again to 2017, we’ve chosen to separate our knowledge seize into three distinct time durations, described beneath. Every interval will produce a separate CSV file, which, when uploaded to Google Earth Professional, will generate a separate knowledge layer on the map.
Every time interval displays a shift within the stage of violence and ensuing displacement patterns of the group over time.
Interval 1. Oct. 5, 2017 – March 23, 2021: Gradual Displacement
The primary assaults start within the northern districts. A gentle stream of Internally Displaced Individuals (IDPs) arrives additional south, in and round Metuge.
Interval 2. March 24, 2021 – Dec. 31, 2021: Peak Displacement
A big-scale assault in town of Palma in March 2021 ends in the displacement of greater than 100,000 individuals.
Interval 3. Jan. 1, 2022 – To Date: Put up-Peak
Following the recapture of Palma and Mocimboa da Praia by Mozambican and allied forces, some IDPs start to return to their houses.
To export the info navigate to the Information Export Instrument and enter the knowledge beneath, repeating this step for every time interval:
Occasion Sort: Battles, Explosions/Distant violence, Violence towards civilians
Nation: Mozambique
Date Vary (From and To):
05/10/2017 – 23/03/2021 (Interval 1: Gradual Displacement)
24/03/2021 – 31/12/2021 (Interval 2: Peak Displacement)
01/01/2022 – So far (Interval 3: Put up-Peak)
Step 2: Mapping Battle Information in Google Earth Professional
Launch Google Earth Professional in your desktop. Within the high menu, click on File → Import.
Navigate to one of many downloaded ACLED CSV information and choose it. The pop-up window, Information Import Wizard, will seem.
Choose Area Sort: Delimited.
Select Comma because the delimiter.
Click on Subsequent and depart the opposite settings as they’re (make sure that the Latitude and Longitude fields are appropriately chosen). Click on End to import the file.
Step 3: Save and Type the Information
A brand new layer will seem beneath Non permanent Locations and Google Earth Professional will mechanically show the imported factors within the map. In the event that they don’t seem, be sure the field subsequent to the layer is ticked.
Proper-click the dataset and select Save Place As… to retailer it as a KML or KMZ file.
Repeat Steps 2 and three for all of the ACLED CSV information you’ve downloaded.
To alter the icons or colors, right-click the layer file, Choose Properties, then modify the Type/Coloration settings.
Step 4: Discover the Information
Click on on any level to view particulars of the occasion, together with the date, kind, and placement.
Bear in mind that ACLED might file a number of battle incidents on the identical location, so occasions can seem stacked on the map.
Toggle the time-period layers on and off to analyse spatio-temporal adjustments in battle patterns.
The visualisation reveals that throughout the first time interval, Gradual Displacement (yellow), the violence was principally concentrated in north-eastern Cabo Delgado, in and round Macomia, Mocimboa da Praia and Palma. Within the second time interval, Peak Displacement (crimson), incidents remained excessive within the north-east, resulting in a massive inflow of IDPs into the Metuge area. By the third time interval, Put up-Peak (blue) the battle had unfold additional south and west, rising the danger of repeated displacements for populations already uprooted.
Zooming in on Displacement
To higher perceive localised displacement patterns, we will start figuring out particular IDP settlements of curiosity utilizing high-resolution satellite tv for pc imagery.
The Copernicus Emergency Mapping Service (EMS) performed a satellite-based evaluation of Cabo Delgado in 2021, figuring out and mapping 27 IDP websites throughout the province.
The EMS’ mission, to ship near-real-time maps and geospatial knowledge throughout or instantly after a crucial occasion, goals to assist responders on the bottom make knowledgeable choices shortly. Latest activations have included the wildfires in Portugal, floods in Germany, or post-landslide in Ethiopia. You’ll be able to entry their full database right here.
The EMS was activated over Cabo Delgado in response to the displacement of hundreds of civilians after militants attacked and killed dozens within the coastal city of Palma. The map beneath reveals seven of the IDP websites captured by the EMS in 2021 within the districts Metuge and Mecufi.
Primarily based on the EMS knowledge, we’ll give attention to two out of the seven settlements: Cuaia (40°21’E 12°59’50″S) and Ngalane (40°23’50″E 13°2’46″S).
Copernicus EMS offers an in depth information on what to look out for when analysing a possible IDP settlement, together with housing varieties, tents, and different buildings. Comply with this hyperlink to obtain the PDF titled Technical Report.
Cuaia – A Non permanent Settlement
As seen within the satellite tv for pc imagery beneath, an organised camp together with tents and sanitation amenities to the west of the small village of Cuaia was seen in Could 2021. Nevertheless, by Could 2022, all of the tents had disappeared, indicating that this was a short lived website which didn’t develop right into a everlasting IDP settlement.
Imagery of Cuaia (40°21’E 12°59’50″S) in Could 2021 and Could 2022. Supply: GoogleEarthPro 2025
The tents’ light-coloured roofs and their uniform dimension and form point out that this settlement was non permanent. Their neat association in intently spaced rows suggests the camp was established by a humanitarian organisation. Simply north of the tents, two rows of small darkish buildings are additionally seen, almost definitely sanitary amenities. Their alignment to the camp additional helps the interpretation that this can be a deliberate, non-permanent set up, distinct from the adjoining village to the east. Within the southern a part of the picture, two buildings have appeared. A change within the color and materials of their roofs might be noticed between 2021 and 2022, suggesting a shift from a short lived to extra sturdy building.
Ngalane – A Everlasting Settlement
Situated south of town of Metuge, Ngalane’s growth is clearly seen in satellite tv for pc imagery – from a small group in 2020 to a bigger, extra established website by 2021. The seen enhance in housing and agricultural fields means that Ngalane has transitioned from a short lived website right into a everlasting IDP settlement.
Imagery of Ngalane (40°23’50″E 13°2’46″S ) in August 2020 and Could 2021
Moderately than the organised, grid-like format seen at non permanent websites corresponding to Cuaia above, the natural association of dwellings in Ngalane, together with casual footpaths, small roads, and newly established small fields and cultivated plots, all point out a stage of permanence. Whereas some buildings nonetheless have light-coloured roofs, indicating tent material, the general spatial organisation of the settlement, mixed with the presence of cultivated land, offers stronger proof of a shift from short-term displacement to long-term settlement, reflecting efforts to rebuild livelihoods.
Analysing the Settlements’ Digital Footprints
Now that we’ve recognized our two areas of curiosity, we will additional analyse the settlements’ buildings and their populations’ publicity to climate-related hazards, utilizing constructing footprint knowledge from OpenStreetMap (OSM). OSM is a collaborative challenge that gives free, crowdsourced geographic knowledge, together with data on roads, buildings, and different infrastructure.
A settlement’s footprint knowledge is predicated on the quantity, dimension, and form of particular person buildings, and can be utilized to estimate how many individuals reside in a given space. Such knowledge might be leveraged for publicity mapping, serving to to determine a location, its density, and the resilience of its buildings in relation to climate-related hazards corresponding to floods, droughts, or cyclones.
Ngalane – an Incomplete Footprint
To see the present OSM constructing footprint of Ngalane, you’ll first must create a free account.
By navigating to the iD Editor window, we will see the OSM footprint of the unique village (outlined in crimson), earlier than the excessive inflow of IDPs, has principally been mapped. Crimson rectangles mark the buildings at the moment recorded in OSM.
Nevertheless, past the outdated village boundary, the newer settlements, residence to the IDPs, stay fully unmapped and due to this fact undocumented. Within the occasion of a future storm or different climate-related hazard, the absence of mapping knowledge for this group might consequence of their exclusion from influence assessments and early response planning.
Cuaia – an Out-of-Date Footprint
In Cuaia, 83 of the unique village buildings have been mapped in OSM. Not one of the non permanent buildings have been documented, as they solely briefly existed in 2021. Nevertheless, when evaluating the OSM knowledge with more moderen satellite tv for pc imagery from 2025, it’s clear the settlement’s footprint is old-fashioned: some buildings now not exist, whereas others stay unmapped.
The OSM metadata reveals that the majority buildings had been mapped between 2017 and 2019. If the info had been wanted for an correct publicity evaluation within the occasion of a cyclone or flood, for instance, the OSM constructing footprints would should be quickly up to date.
To handle such time-sensitive eventualities, the initiative Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Workforce (HOT) organises rapid-response open mapping for crisis-affected areas. HOT is a worldwide initiative that mobilises volunteers to assist produce real-time geospatial data by tracing buildings, roads and rivers in OSM. Its Export Instrument additionally permits customers to pick out an space of curiosity and obtain customized extracts of OSM knowledge, together with constructing footprints, street networks, or land use, in varied codecs for geospatial evaluation.
Analysing OSM knowledge in Google Earth Professional
To overlay the settlement’s constructing footprints with the battle and local weather knowledge, we’ll first export the related OSM layers utilizing the HOT Export Instrument, then import them into Google Earth Professional for evaluation.
You’ll need to create a free HOT account earlier than taking the subsequent steps.
Step 1: Open the HOT Export Instrument. Create a reputation in your dataset, then navigate to your space of curiosity, for instance, Ngalane. Utilizing the toolbar on the appropriate, choose the field software and click on and drag a rectangle over the realm you wish to export the info for.
Step 2: Beneath the Codecs tab choose Google Earth .kml then click on Subsequent.
Step 3: Tick the Buildings field to export all constructing footprint knowledge in your chosen space. Click on Subsequent.
Step 4: Click on Create Export.
Step 5: As soon as the standing reveals Accomplished, click on on the obtain hyperlink to avoid wasting the info as a .zip file.
Step 6: To import the info into Google EarthPro, both drag and drop the .kml file immediately into this system or go to File -> Import -> then choose the downloaded file. As soon as the info is imported, right-click on the layer within the panel on the left, choose Properties, and underneath the Type, Coloration tab, customise the looks of the constructing knowledge in your map.
By visually evaluating the distribution of mapped buildings to the satellite tv for pc imagery in Google Earth Professional, you may assess the completeness and accuracy of OSM mapping in your space of curiosity. You can too discover historic satellite tv for pc imagery by way of the Time-Instrument to trace adjustments within the constructing footprint over time and higher perceive how the settlement has developed.
Overlaying the Local weather Information
In Half I of this information, we mapped NASA local weather knowledge, particularly the collected rainfall introduced by Cyclone Kenneth in 2019, to spotlight the cyclone’s path and its influence on communities in Cabo Delgado. For a refresher on methods to import local weather knowledge into Google Earth Professional, see Half I of this information.
By overlaying the ACLED battle incident knowledge (2017 to 2021) with the collected rainfall knowledge in Google Earth Professional, we will see how violence concentrated within the northwest was a serious driver of displacement each earlier than and through Cyclone Kenneth. Nevertheless, displacement southward introduced many immediately into areas uncovered to extreme flooding.
Supply: ACLED 2025, NASA 2025, Google Earth Professional 2025
Zooming in on our case research settlement, Ngalane, additional reveals this group’s excessive publicity to the impacts of Cyclone Kenneth, together with heavy rainfall and flooding.
With at the least 63 houses seen in Ngalane’s OSM constructing footprint, we will estimate a minimal variety of residents on the time Cyclone Kenneth struck. Nevertheless, for the reason that footprint was incomplete, the precise inhabitants was doubtless larger.
Mapping Cabo Delgado in 2025
So far, quite a few communities throughout Cabo Delgado stay unmapped and extremely susceptible to the subsequent cyclone or flood, together with Ngalane.
Because the starting of this 12 months, greater than 20,000 individuals have reportedly been displaced by ongoing violence, and these communities should be resettling someplace.
Latest satellite tv for pc imagery of Ngalane reveals the fast growth of latest buildings in all instructions from the unique village – all undocumented and due to this fact invisible on current maps.
In an effort to replace important mapping knowledge of the group, along with HOT we’ve created a activity within the HOT OSM Tasking Supervisor to provoke mapping of latest buildings in Ngalane. Comply with this hyperlink to create an account, full the OSM mapping tutorial and begin mapping buildings in Ngalane! Your efforts will assist generate important mapping knowledge for this settlement, supporting preparedness for future storms within the area.
To search out out extra in regards to the intersection of local weather, battle, and displacement, discover the Story Map Local weather, disasters and battle in Cabo Delgado by the Crimson Cross Crimson Crescent Local weather Centre (2022). It presents a retrospective evaluation of the impacts of Cyclones Kenneth and Idai, framed throughout the context of battle and displacement.
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