Rwandan-backed rebels M23 are persevering with to consolidate their management over Goma after taking management of the town’s worldwide airport and border crossing. Preventing between M23 and the Congolese military reportedly dampened in a single day as footage from Goma confirmed Congolese troopers surrendering, with M23 celebrating within the streets. It stays unclear precisely how a lot of the town the Congolese authorities nonetheless controls.
Congolese navy forces are supported by government-backed native militias and a UN peacekeeping mission (MONUSCO), however M23 is reportedly supported by an estimated 3,000- 4,000 members of the Rwandan Defence Forces.
Goma has a inhabitants of roughly 2 million folks (together with 1 million Internally Displaced Individuals), and is the gateway to treasured mineral mines within the area in addition to being a humanitarian hub and a busy cross-border buying and selling publish.
The lack of key components of the town represents an enormous strategic blow to the Congolese navy and can exacerbate one of many world’s largest humanitarian crises.
Leaders of each Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo had been anticipated to satisfy in Kenya on Wednesday for emergency talks, however the DRC President has stated he won’t attend.
UN Secretary Basic António Guterres’ calls for for Rwanda to withdraw its troops and for M23 to stop its offensive have been ignored. 13 peacekeepers had been killed in M23’s advance in direction of Goma final week.
Amid web and energy outages, the unfold of disinformation on-line and ongoing preventing within the metropolis, it has been exhausting to achieve correct info from the bottom. Bellingcat geolocated footage rising from the town and surrounding area to trace the M23 assault.
The Lengthy Presence of M23 in North Kivu
The M23 is a Rwanda-backed armed group whose acknowledged objective is to defend Congolese Tutsis from surrounding communities. The group was fashioned in 2012 and seized Goma in the identical yr, however left the town shortly after being repelled by Congolese and UN troops. The group’s resurgence started in 2022 with the seizure of the city of Bunagana, on the Ugandan border north of Goma. The group’s advances south in direction of Goma and west into the mineral-rich territory of Masisi have displaced over 2 million folks. US-backed peace negotiations held in Luanda, Angola, fell aside in late 2024 with Rwanda blaming the DRC for refusing to barter with M23 and DRC refusing to recognise M23 as something greater than a shadow military of the Rwandan authorities.
In an announcement launched Sunday, the Rwandan authorities blamed the Congolese military for violating earlier ceasefire agreements and stated the M23 group was preventing to guard their neighborhood. They raised issues in regards to the ongoing battle within the neighbouring nation and accused the Congolese authorities of failing to enter negotiations with M23.
Goma is positioned at a cross-roads. The town shares a porous border with Rwanda to the east, and to the south, it borders the huge Lake Kivu. The west and the north are the standard Congolese routes into the town alongside the paved N2 freeway. Sake, an outlying city to the west of Goma, was taken by M23 on their solution to the regional capital.
Whereas the UN peacekeeping pressure stays within the metropolis, some had been compelled to quickly take shelter amid the preventing.
The Assault on Goma
The political wing of M23 had issued an announcement on Saturday urging the Congolese navy in Goma to give up within the subsequent 48 hours. M23 penetrated the town in a single day on Sunday and preventing between the 2 sides intensified over the following few days.
Within the early hours of Monday, a video was posted on X exhibiting troopers strolling calmly alongside the highway with heavy autos driving alongside them. We geolocated the video to -1.681136, 29.234377, on one of many metropolis’s bigger streets – Boulevard Kanyamahanga in downtown Goma.
Later that day native journalist Daniel Michombero posted a video exhibiting a protracted convoy of autos on the highway. We geolocated this convoy to Avenue de la Corniche, right here -1.694869, 29.232647, in entrance of a UN base. We had been unable to right away verify possession of the autos.
Smoke may very well be seen rising about Munzenze Jail as gunfire is heard. UN-sponsored Radio Okapi reported that greater than 4,000 prisoners escaped from the power amid clashes. We geolocated right here -1.668827 29.232405; it was additionally geolocated by Benjamin Strick of the Centre for Data Resilience.
Management of the town remained contested all through Monday and Tuesday with residents of Goma telling the media that ongoing preventing was forcing folks to remain inside their properties.
Footage posted on social media confirmed intense preventing going down on Goma’s streets. We geolocated this footage posted on Tuesday simply west of the airport and north of the roundabout on Rue Sake and Boulevard Kanyamuhanga, right here: -1.676993, 29.234208.
From Monday onwards, photographs and pictures of Congolese military troopers surrendering to Rwandan troops unfold on social media.
Footage filmed by AFP information company confirmed surrendering Congolese troopers crossing into Rwanda escorted down the NR2 by Rwandan forces previous the Grande Barriere/Corniche border crossing, right here: -1.696132,29.247532.
Footage posted on X additionally confirmed males in search of refuge in a UN peacekeeping compound which we positioned right here: -1.675276, 29.214131. Within the footage gunfire may be heard within the background as folks rush inside earlier than the doorways are closed
“We’re closing” is repeated thrice by the UN peacekeepers earlier than they lastly shut the gate.
Amid studies of their give up, the South African Nationwide Protection Forces stationed in Goma launched an announcement on Tuesday clarifying {that a} white flag raised above their compound was raised to make sure a pause in hostilities so either side may accumulate lifeless and wounded.
Management of Goma Worldwide Airport additionally remained unclear. On Sunday, it was evacuated, and worldwide flights had been quickly grounded amid the preventing.
A video posted on Fb on Sunday that we geolocated right here, -1.658362 29.241093 confirmed Congolese troops and defence contractors securing entry to the airport, amid studies M23 had been in shut proximity.
Native media reported it remained underneath management of the Congolese military on Monday. Nevertheless by Tuesday, footage shared on X confirmed M23 troopers accountable for the airport with Congolese troops detained. We geolocated this picture to the southern finish of the runway, right here -1.679029, 29.239894.
The Street to Goma: An Epicentre of Refugees
As M23 continued to take floor all through January hundreds of refugees have fled to large camps of tents positioned north and west of Goma.
In response to the World Meals Programme, preventing within the final 25 days has displaced over 400,000 folks, a lot of them already beforehand displaced.
The City of Sake Falls
Preventing across the city of Sake to the west of Goma resulted in a victory for M23 on Thursday, 23 January.A video shared on Fb on January 23 confirmed the place of the Congolese military and mercenaries alongside the N2 freeway between Sake and Goma. We geolocated it right here: -1.591358, 29.096926.
We confirmed the geolocation by cross-referencing the footage with Peak Visor and satellite tv for pc imagery.
4 months in the past, a YouTube interview with former Romanian troopers supporting the Congolese military confirmed them positioned in the identical defensive place.
M23 had been creeping alongside this provide route in direction of Goma, with smaller cities, reminiscent of Minova falling earlier within the week.
M23 has seized mining cities all through its decade-long incursion into Congo, reportedly smuggling the wealth of the nation to Rwanda, after which onto the worldwide provide chain.
The militia had examined the defences of Sake all through 2024, however pushed out the Congolese military on January 23. Social media footage confirmed Congolese troopers strolling again alongside the identical freeway in direction of Goma, positioned simply 27 km away.
North Kivu’s Governor Killed and Folks Depart the Metropolis
On Friday, January 24, the Congolese navy rolled out from Goma in an try to retake Sake.
The navy governor of North Kivu province, Peter Cirimwami, accompanied them heading west alongside the N2 freeway.
His go to went terribly unsuitable. Cirimwami was shot and killed throughout the preventing with M23, the Congolese military stated in an announcement launched later that day.
The new navy governor Somo Kakule Evariste was appointed on Tuesday, by the Ministry of Defence.
Non-essential UN personnel had been additionally ordered to go away Goma, nevertheless the sizable UN peacekeeping pressure stays within the metropolis.
Movies of UN employees boarding buses and being escorted by the navy to the airport circulated broadly, and was reposted by a number of pro-Rwanda social media accounts, alongside criticism of the UN mission and Congolese authorities.
Residents Trapped
At an emergency assembly of the UN Safety Council held on Sunday night time, Bintou Keita, Particular Consultant of the Secretary-Basic for the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Head of MONUSCO, informed delegates that M23 and Rwandan forces had penetrated the outskirts of Goma.
“In different phrases, we’re trapped.”
Bintou Keita
Keita stated that roads had been blocked and that M23 has declared Goma’s airspace closed.
“In different phrases, we’re trapped,” she stated.
In a latest assertion launched by the Worldwide Pink Cross and Pink Crescent who’re lively within the metropolis, they stated the usage of artillery in densely populated city centres and close to displaced individuals camps was having a devastating affect on civilians. Their surgical groups had been persevering with to deal with folks within the metropolis regardless of preventing.
“The wounded are transported by motorcycle, others by bus, or with the assistance of Congolese Pink Cross volunteers. Civilians arrive significantly wounded by bullets or shrapnel. Your complete hospital is mobilized and the three surgical groups work tirelessly to deal with sufferers who’re generally mendacity on the ground as a result of lack of area,” Myriam Favier, head of the ICRC sub-delegation in Goma stated.
Goma was final overrun by M23 in 2012. They withdrew after a peace settlement brokered by a number of African nations led the M23 troops to give up the town.
It stays to be seen whether or not M23 – and their backers – will additional cement their management over Goma and the North Kivu area over the approaching days or enter negotiations for peace.
Carlos Gonzales, Pooja Chaudhuri, Rob Cecilio, and Dave Brookes contributed analysis to this report.
Riccardo, Sarah, Manon, Rob, and Dave are founding members of CongoEye, a gaggle established by way of Bellingcat’s Discord server. CongoEye is devoted to analyzing occasions within the Democratic Republic of Congo utilizing open-source analysis methodologies.
Congo Eye is constant to doc and find incidents of civilian hurt in North Kivu. You possibly can be taught extra about CongoEye at Bluesky [https://bsky.app/profile/congoeye.com], Medium [https://medium.com/@congoeye] or e-mail rob@congoeye.com.
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