There’s a shadow hanging over the Europe. The ascent of Donald Trump to the White Home has uncovered brewing fragilities inside the continent’s economic system and navy prowess. That hasn’t been evident anyplace greater than in Germany, the economic powerhouse reeling from two years of unfavourable development.
Now, Germany’s allies, who’ve lived in their very own shadow of Europe’s greatest economic system, are left going through questions on their very own survival. That’s most evident in its neighbor to the east: the Czech Republic.
Inside the big $348 billion Volkswagen group lies Skoda, a quiet success story for the Czech Republic that claims as a lot concerning the nation’s post-Chilly Struggle ascension because it does about its long-term dangers.
The Czech Republic, also called Czechia, has constructed its post-Chilly Struggle economic system in the identical means Germany did post-reunification: with a give attention to trade. Manufacturing as a share of GDP has hovered above 20% within the nation for the final 30 years, becoming a member of Germany in bucking the Western pattern of deindustrialization.
A 3rd of Czechia’s exports go to Germany, whereas 20% of its imports come from its closest neighbor.
The ties between the Czech Republic and Germany are finest exemplified by Skoda, the Czech Republic’s largest firm, which is owned by Germany’s largest firm, Volkswagen.
Skoda’s power
Skoda makes up a big chunk of the large Volkswagen group, which additionally comprises Audi, Seat, Porsche, and the Volkswagen model itself.
The carmaker raked in €26.5 billion in revenues in 2023, a large 26% enhance on 2022, and equal to just about 10% of the Czechian economic system.
If it had been an impartial firm, Skoda would rank within the prime 150 of the Fortune 500 Europe, as one of many prime 10 carmakers, and by far the biggest Czech firm on the checklist.
The automaker additionally hasn’t faltered lately like its fellow automakers underneath the Volkswagen umbrella. Within the first 9 months of 2024, Skoda elevated working earnings by almost 35% in contrast with the identical interval in 2023, whereas the Volkswagen group as an entire confronted a ten% decline in earnings.
The group’s revenue margin within the first 9 months of 2024 of 8.3% additionally places it among the many most worthwhile manufacturers throughout Volkswagen and properly above the collective group margin of 5.6%.
Skoda is, in line with David Havrlant, chief economist for the Czech Republic at ING, the “golden egg” inside the Volkswagen group, he informed Fortune.
The carmaker’s gross sales are overwhelmingly Europe-focused. Round 9 in 10 of its automobiles had been delivered to Europe in 2023, with the rest going to Asia-Pacific. That seems to have shielded the producer from the fall-off in gross sales skilled by Volkswagen, which constructed its dominance on China’s burgeoning client market, which has gone into reverse lately.
Certainly, by way of 2024 Skoda elevated its deliveries by 6.9%, in comparison with the Volkswagen model’s 1.4% decline, reflective of an almost 10% discount in China deliveries final 12 months.
That divergence from Volkswagen speaks extra broadly to a divergence between Czechia and Germany.
The Czech Republic, alongside Germany, struggled by way of 2024, with GDP declining 0.3% within the wake of sanctions on Russian power.
But the nation is anticipated to rebound quicker than its companion to the West, with development projections of two.3% in 2025, nearly triple Germany’s projected development of 0.8%, in line with Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) forecasts.
The Czech economic system has proved extra engaging for companies seeking to increase their footprint. Wages within the nation, for instance, are round half what they’re in Germany, decreasing enter prices.
Its wider inhabitants appears extra content material too.
“I’d say that the Czech client is much less depressed than the German client,” Ana Boata, head of financial analysis at Allianz Commerce, informed Fortune.
Home demand is anticipated to be an enormous driver of Czech GDP development this 12 months, reflective of that increased client confidence.
However seemingly unshakeable bonds between Czechia and Germany proceed to threaten the nation’s economic system.
Czechia’s obstacles
Czechia’s manufacturing output has moved in lockstep with Germany’s because the latter’s downturn started in 2022. Each nations’ PMIs have been in contraction territory for almost three years as producers battle with increased power prices and falling demand, inflicting knock-on results to producers downstream.
Ladislav Tyll, a lecturer on the Prague College of Economics and Enterprise, notes that between producers and corporations within the provide chain, the automotive sector in Czechia accounts for round half one million jobs.
“So frankly talking, if something goes improper… they’re out of enterprise, and this nation might technically financially collapse,” Tyll informed Fortune.
Each nations have been scuffling with falling funding, making a barrier to future development.
“That is actually not good for these economies, and that does not sign something good for the approaching years,” stated Tyll.
Considered one of Chezia’s major issues for its manufacturing-heavy economic system is oppressive local weather targets. The nation joined Italy final November in calling for a rest of the EU’s local weather guidelines that can result in the banning of the sale of carbon-emitting autos by 2035.
Allianz’s Boata says 2025 is a 12 months of transition for carmakers and the economies they occupy. On the one hand, they might want to up their manufacturing of electrical and hybrid autos to adjust to environmental laws. On the opposite, this implies wading into far more aggressive markets beset by low cost Chinese language-made rivals.
“That may even indicate some impression on the turnovers of these Czech suppliers which can be principally interlinked with the German automotive makers, not solely quantity, but in addition worth,” says Boata.
ING’s Havrlant writes extensively concerning the Czech economic system. He says that there are 4 levels of structural disaster a rustic should move by way of earlier than policymakers can step in.
“You need to acknowledge there’s a downside. Second, you need to admit it’s your downside. Third, you need to drive your self to get throughout that you simply need to do one thing about it. And fourth, you do one thing about it.”
The Czech Republic is someplace earlier than stage three and 4 with regards to its automotive sector, Havrlant says, whereas he thinks Germany is caught at level zero.
In consequence, Havrlant believes the Czech economic system is slowly decoupling itself from Germany.
“Their order books have been unhealthy for such a very long time that till now, it was all the time sufficient to attend till issues bought higher, however that is not the case anymore,” Havrlant stated of Czechia and Germany’s relationship.
Political headwinds
The political story in Czechia can also be the identical as in Germany and, more and more, throughout the remainder of Europe.
Like in Germany, elections beckon in 2025, and there’s a equally populist tone to polling in each nations.
Between Various for Deutschland (AfD) in Germany, Nationwide Rally in France, Brothers of Italy in Italy, and Reform within the U.Okay., Europe’s greatest economies have been rocked by surging assist for far-right political events able to upset the established order.
So follows the equally jingoistic Patriots for Europe, the rebel Cezchian populist celebration set to comb elections later in 2025.
Tyll says the potential victory of Patriots for Europe would doubtless have a constructive impression.
As an alternative, it’s Germany’s February elections that pose extra of a danger for Czechia’s economic system.
He worries that the rising affect of the far-right AfD might trigger Volkswagen to focus on job cuts outdoors of Germany, with Skoda’s tens of 1000’s of staff a possible goal.
The nation will hope Germany acknowledges the significance of its “golden egg” and the deeper partnership that appears prefer it’s serving Czechia greater than its ally.
Editor’s be aware: A model of this text first appeared on Fortune.com on January 21, 2025.
This story was initially featured on Fortune.com
