Allan Lichtman, a historian and professor at American College usually referred to as the Nostradamus of presidential elections, has two notes for you: there isn’t a such factor as an October shock and Kamala Harris continues to be set to win.
Showing on CNN, Lichtman stated: “Nothing has modified. The most important fantasy in American politics is the so-called October shock. I’ve all the time issued my predictions earlier than then, and by no means change them.
He continued: “In 2016 for instance, we had the largest October shock, Donald Trump on tape bragging about sexually assaulting ladies, and a number of ladies popping out and saying: ‘yeah, he did that to me.’ Even Republicans have been saying he was completed. I didn’t change my prediction of a Trump win.”
Lichtman was referring to an Entry Hollywood tape leaked in early October lower than a month away from election day, again in 2016 when he was operating in opposition to Hillary Clinton. Trump was heard bragging in vulgar phrases about ladies. And look how that turned out. Lichtman has an nearly good monitor report of calling presidential elections over the previous 4 many years. This election 12 months, he’s predicting a Harris win, and he isn’t altering course, regardless of feeling extra anxious about it than ever earlier than.
“I’ve by no means skilled the sort of hate I’ve had heaped on me this time, which has made me very nervous. I’ve had hate that’s scurrilous, vulgar, threatening, violent…We’ve needed to notify the police we’ve needed to fortify our dwelling. It’s been terribly upsetting.”
He continued: “The opposite factor is, I imagine democracy is on the road on this election. If I’m flawed, so be it. You recognize, I believe being flawed as soon as just isn’t going to discredit my system, however I believe if I’m flawed, then our democracy is in very severe peril. Democracy is valuable, however it may be destroyed and it’s nearly all the time destroyed from inside. And sadly, the pattern of this century has been the decline of democracy, everywhere in the world. And I’m nervous about our nation.”
In nationwide polls, Harris has the tiniest little bit of lead on Trump, however it actually is neck-and-neck. Both approach, even when it’s a fantasy, what was this 12 months’s so-called October shock for the Trump marketing campaign? Perhaps the rally at Madison Sq. Backyard? Loads of headlines got here out of that one, however comic Tony Hinchcliffe’s feedback about Puerto Rico might take the cake.
Democrats in fact ran with it. Then again, Trump claimed he had “executed extra for Puerto Rico than any president by far, no person shut,” later including: “I’ll ship the perfect future for Puerto Ricans and for Hispanic People. Kamala will ship you poverty and crime.” Fortune’s Shawn Tully reported that Trump blew an enormous lead and that rally began the drop.
For the Harris marketing campaign, her billionaire surrogate Mark Cuban might have delivered a type of October shock, the final day of the month, too. On The View, when requested what he thinks about Trump seemingly not calling on former presidential candidate Nikki Haley for assist, he stated: “Donald Trump, you by no means see him round sturdy, clever ladies. Ever. It’s simply that straightforward. They’re intimidating to him. He doesn’t wish to be challenged by them.”
It appeared that he was talking concerning the folks Trump chooses to have round him on the marketing campaign path, however Cuban acquired a number of warmth for what he stated. He later apologized for and clarified his feedback to recommend he is aware of many sturdy, clever ladies who’re voting for Trump, who assist Trump, and who’ve labored with Trump.
Election day is tomorrow. We’ll see if Lichtman referred to as it proper—once more.
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