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“It’s the financial system, silly!” has as soon as once more grow to be the axiomatic rationalization for why this yr’s presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump stays so shut.
There’s actually a stupor that units in when making an attempt to clarify why the financial system is the No. 1 concern for voters at a time when most indicators — low unemployment, regular job progress, easing inflation, rising wages, declining gasoline costs, document inventory market — counsel the financial system is definitely doing fairly properly.
However what if it’s not the financial system? What if it’s one thing else? What if when some voters say it’s the financial system, they’re really simply expressing a partisan viewpoint?
That’s what an in depth have a look at Wisconsin polling information from the Marquette College Legislation College suggests is going on.
The compilation of knowledge from 40 Marquette polls going again to 2016 exhibits partisans, notably Republicans, expressing extra detrimental or constructive views about their very own financial scenario relying on who’s within the White Home.
The six most up-to-date polls from 2023 and 2024 additionally present Republicans expressing extra pessimism about their financial scenario than independents and Democrats with comparable incomes.
Each components might assist clarify why public polling displays a lot consternation about an in any other case wholesome financial system.
“The financial system issues and private finance, private revenue issues, however in the case of politics there’s additionally this overlay of political perceptions that actually do have an effect on how folks reply survey questions and possibly how they vote as properly,” mentioned Marquette ballot director Charles Franklin, who compiled the information for Wisconsin Watch.
In the course of the Trump years, amongst all respondents, 60% mentioned they have been residing comfortably, in contrast with 50% within the final yr of the Obama presidency and the previous 4 years beneath Joe Biden.
However once you break that quantity down by celebration, the share of Republicans who reported residing comfortably went from 54% on the finish of the Obama period, method as much as 69% beneath Trump after which crashing all the way down to 45% beneath Biden. For Democrats it was regular enchancment: 49% beneath Obama, 54% beneath Trump and 58% beneath Biden. Amongst independents it fluctuated, however much less so than amongst Republicans, going from 42% to 49% to 40%.
Amplifying the Republican financial vibe shift on this election cycle is the polling information’s different large discovering: Republicans are quite a bit much less content material with what they’ve.
The Marquette ballot has persistently requested about financial temper alongside family revenue since 2016. For these with an revenue of greater than $100,000 a yr — the highest quarter of households in Wisconsin — two out of three respondents within the final six polls mentioned they have been residing comfortably, somewhat greater than 1 / 4 mentioned they have been “simply getting by” and 6% mentioned they have been struggling.
Breaking that down once more alongside celebration strains reveals a stark partisan divide over how a lot is required to maintain up with the Joneses.
Amongst Democrats making greater than $100,000 a yr, 81% mentioned they’re residing comfortably. Amongst Republicans in that prime revenue tier, it was solely 55% — barely lower than Democrats who mentioned they’re comfy making $50,000 to $100,000. Solely 2% of Democrats in that prime revenue class mentioned they’re struggling. Amongst Republicans, it was 9%.
“Republicans making over $100,000 say they’re financially as properly off as Democrats within the $50,000 to $100,000 vary,” Franklin famous. “That’s only a useful reminder that when Republicans say they’re struggling or they see the financial system as doing poorly it’s not reflecting solely their goal circumstances, but it surely’s reflecting that their reply to the ‘How are you doing?’ query does have this substantial part of partisanship.”
Half of Republicans who in latest polls mentioned they’re residing comfortably named the financial system as their prime concern on this yr’s election. Amongst comfy Democrats, the No. 1 concern was abortion coverage, talked about by 29% with solely 19% saying the highest concern is the financial system. For struggling and just-getting-by Democrats, in addition to every tier amongst independents and Republicans, the financial system was the highest concern, although solely 22% of comfy independents mentioned it was the financial system adopted by Medicare and Social Safety at 16%.
None of that is to say that top inflation brought on by the globally disruptive fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic hasn’t soured voters on the financial system. For these on the decrease finish of the financial scale, Republican or Democrat, the previous few years have given loads of motive to be pessimistic.
However when some voters say the financial system is their prime concern, it is probably not due to financial hardship. It might be a mirrored image of their partisan political opinions.
Ahead is a glance forward on the week in Wisconsin authorities and politics from the Wisconsin Watch statehouse crew.
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